Author : ■ newspaper reporter Yong Jian
Domestic rubber market experienced a "golden nine silver ten" shopping season ushered in a new round of market adjustment . Some plastics ( 10965 , 60.00 , 0.55% ) cost products due to the presence of international crude oil prices late momentum generated by the positive support , resulting in rising prices . And rubber ( 16545 , 30.00 , 0.18% ) of the callback there is likely to turn into a wave of strong downward trend , which devastated
Rubber and plastic products are petroleum subsidiary , as their source , so collectively rubber industries. But two recent market performance is different, this is an interesting phenomenon. Recently, research from professional organizations show: "After ten jinjiuyin season after spending since November , markets were mixed plastics , rubber was devastated ."
Plastic , rubber and different performance
Social business analyst薛金磊of "China Business Times " reporter said that since November , the domestic plastics market experienced a "golden nine silver ten" shopping season ushered in a new round of market adjustment . Market is mixed, mostly pullback products , and rising product or narrowed, fell product declines widening. Part of GE Plastics, especially polyolefin still high narrow plate up , plastic weak adjustment based. Because of the cost of the latter part of the agricultural film in international crude oil prices generated by the power of positive support , resulting in rising prices .
In contrast, rubber , is still skyrocketing rational pullback after three quarters , however late tire factory operating rate is expected to further decline, demand will fall , does not exclude the callback rubber into a strong downward trend wave . Rubber constrained by two factors , one is the stock market pressure, the absolute amount of excess supply , on the other hand the demand side , the downstream tire manufacturers operating at only 40% -50 % , mainly due to the domestic auto industry downturn and tires exports severe downturn, the tire industry is currently facing difficulties reshuffle . It is understood that many manufacturers shut down the device market , the possibility of rubber raw materials supply and demand has led to long-standing .
Film market poised upward
On plastic is concerned , since the November general plastic mixed, to rise based polyolefins , and is mainly used as low-density polyethylene LDPE film products rose the most , to 3.89 percent . On the one hand , this is the cost of international crude oil late upward momentum generated by the presence of positive support due : After mid- November , crude usher in the peak seasonal demand for heating oil , the latter is expected to rise significantly increased ; hand, naphtha oil and ethylene monomer prices are also affected by the tight supply continued to rise slightly .
On the supply and demand side is concerned , there are some positive : petrochemical supply relatively tight , as of the end of November , there are still 1.2 million tons of polyethylene devices overhaul , more than 1.5 million tons of polypropylene plant maintenance , petrochemical manufacturers limited production overhaul hand ensure that the companys profit growth , on the other hand also regulate the market supply and demand pattern , significant destocking effective . In addition, the demand season sweltering did not retire , although plastic sheeting with the end of the season , but the packaging film and plastic pipes are generally just need still exists a strong market for polyolefins stimulus.
For agricultural film of linear low density polyethylene LLDPE , since the sweltering season did not retire , the market will remain poised upward. Since November , used agricultural film linear low density polyethylene LLDPE market prices remain high , the market and not because of the approaching end of the season commenced plastic sheeting callback situation. Business community monitoring , LLDPE market mainstream remains 12,000 yuan / ton at the top mark, upstream ethylene monomer are strong, supply shortages and the end of the reserve period mulch films coming season and other factors supporting LLDPE prices remain high .
From the current point of view , the spot prices are not realistic . Because LLDPE ex-factory from 2012 onwards has been an upward pattern , factory price intentions quite clear , but more recently was maintained at 12,000 yuan / ton , the price is high nearly three years. Therefore, the ex-factory price high prices on the spot market there is strong support, resulting in untold spot prices fell sharply . LLDPE from the recent price trend of view, it is showing the way up the pattern. LLDPE index from mid- April low of 9,480 yuan / ton, up to mid- October high of 11,480 yuan / ton , an increase of 21.1%. So in the case of manufacturers of very price , spot prices fell sharply difficult space , futures sharply rising premium status can only be achieved by .
Supply of good market for LLDPE produced a boost effect : Since November , LLDPE manufacturers overhaul efforts remain strong this year and petrochemical manufacturers in order to reverse the long-term loss of the situation , deliberately cut and converting overhaul , making PE production growth declined 1 -10 PE cumulative production of 9.119 million tons , compared with last year ( 8.421 million tons ) increased 698,000 tons , an increase of 8.3% , an increase were significantly reduced compared to previous years. Petrochemical manufacturers to limit production maintenance on the one hand to ensure corporate profit growth , on the other hand also regulate the market supply and demand pattern , significant destocking effective , market supply of goods in recent months has remained tight pattern.
Into November , although films with the end of the season , LLDPE part of the demand was restrained , but the rigid demand and the upcoming film packaging film season and other factors led to the overall market demand to maintain a high level of LLDPE . October , plastic sheeting yield 182,100 tons , an increase of 17.37% , the cumulative production of the first 10 months 962,800 tons , an increase of 18.23% ; plastic film production 962,800 tons , an increase of 9.46 percent , the first 10 months of cumulative production of 8,886,400 tons , an increase of 9.29 percent . Currently, films nearing the end consumer , the warmth of the season is still not back in November to support the plastics market .
Xue Jinlei expect short term, with the end of the season of plastic sheeting , LLDPE may be suppressed market demand , coupled with the resumption of production and other factors led to Fushun petrochemical plants supply pressures eased in December the market may usher in a slight pullback pattern, but in the medium term , with crude oil usher in the peak seasonal demand for heating oil and strong ethylene market , there is good support LLDPE costs , coupled with later December , reserves cycle upcoming spring mulch , plastic sheeting , and production is expected to rise month by month New Years Day and Spring Festival driven by demand recovery packaging film , LLDPE demand is still optimistic about the long-term . Furthermore , the macro side turn good , good domestic economic environment and a series of factors to consider , domestic LLDPE market remains upward pattern.
PS, EPS, ABS and other plastic products market appears narrow down, mainly due to the upstream styrene plummeted and home appliances and other consumer downturn affected areas . Plastic affected by seasonal off-season , prices weak consolidation , Change rate of more than 2%, PA66 largest decrease in -1.79%, POM largest increase , at 1.45% , currently marketing two plastic is not busy , enterprises can by lowering the load to ease the pressure on the stock market turnover has continued to slow the trend .
Rubber market steadily declined
Rubber , the month , natural rubber , synthetic rubber , special rubber are steadily declining , butadiene rubber largest decline in -9.43 %, including natural rubber up to 6% decline in the past two months , synthetic rubber SBR October So far the decline is also up 7.36% , sharply butadiene synthetic rubber raw materials in addition to the recent weakness ( butadiene past month or up to 10% ) , and the other reason is bad downstream demand , the domestic manufacturers, including Sinopec , including the recent spate of price cuts , adding to the bearish market sentiment , and natural rubber tapping season is facing Southeast Asia and other regions , the supply pressure is also increasing , in October Chinas natural rubber ( including latex ) imports amounted to 190,000 tons , 180,000 tons from last month s increase 5.6% over last year s 170,000 tons increased by 11.8% . To the volume increase led to a further surge in port stocks , as of mid-November Qingdao Bonded Rubber Total inventories increased more than 10,000 tons to 264,500 tons compared to the end of October .
Contact: Xing Jingli